The race for the 2025 World Test Championship (WTC) final is heating up, with India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka still in contention. Following New Zealand’s loss to England in the first Test at Christchurch, India’s path to the final has become slightly easier. Here’s a breakdown of how India can qualify for the summit clash at Lord’s in June 2025.
Impact of New Zealand’s Loss to England
New Zealand’s recent eight-wicket loss to England in Christchurch has significantly impacted their chances of qualifying for the WTC final. This defeat means that New Zealand can no longer surpass the 60% mark in the WTC standings. With just two more matches left for them, the best they can reach is a points percentage (PCT) of 57.14.
While New Zealand had boosted their qualification chances with a historic 3-0 series win over India in India, their loss to England now opens up opportunities for other teams, including India. For India, this is a good sign as they currently lead the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series against Australia 1-0, following their dominant 295-run victory in Perth.
India’s Current Standing and Remaining Matches
India is in a strong position, sitting at the top of the WTC standings with 61.11% PCT. They have four more Tests remaining in the cycle, all against Australia. India’s performance in these matches will be crucial for their qualification for the final.
If India wins the remaining Tests, they will likely seal their spot in the summit clash. The next Test takes place in Adelaide on December 6, 2024. Here’s how India can secure their place in the final.
Scenarios for India’s Qualification
1. India Wins 4-0 or 5-0 Against Australia
If India wins the remaining four Tests against Australia with a 4-0 or 5-0 scoreline, they will comfortably qualify for the WTC final. A 4-0 win will raise their PCT to 64.04%, putting them well ahead of other competitors like Sri Lanka and South Africa, who would have a PCT of 61.54% and 61.11%, respectively, if they win all their upcoming series.
2. India Wins 3-0 or 3-1 Against Australia
India can also qualify for the final with a 3-0 win over Australia. A 3-1 series win is also a viable option, but for this scenario to work, India will need to hope that South Africa does not beat Sri Lanka in the second Test, which starts on December 5, 2024. South Africa had won the first Test against Sri Lanka by a convincing 233-run margin, which allowed them to leapfrog Australia into second place in the WTC standings.
In this case, if India wins 3-1, South Africa’s failure to beat Sri Lanka will keep India in second place and improve their chances of qualification.
3. India Wins 3-2 Against Australia
In the event of a 3-2 victory over Australia, India will need Sri Lanka to at least draw one match in their upcoming series against Australia. This would be crucial in ensuring India’s qualification. A 3-2 result will not guarantee India a spot in the final without favorable results in other series.
4. India Draws 2-2 Against Australia
If the series ends in a 2-2 draw, things will become more complicated for India. In this scenario, India will need several favorable outcomes, including:
- South Africa must beat Sri Lanka 2-0.
- Sri Lanka must beat Australia at least 1-0 in their two-match series early next year.
India’s qualification will be dependent on a combination of results, making this scenario a less straightforward path to the final.
South Africa’s Role in India’s Qualification
South Africa plays a key role in India’s qualification chances. Currently sitting in second place with 59.26% PCT, South Africa can still influence the outcome. If South Africa wins their upcoming series against Sri Lanka 2-0, their PCT will rise to 69.44%, potentially pushing India into second place.
India will need to keep an eye on South Africa’s performance and hope for favorable results in the other series, especially against Sri Lanka.
Conclusion
India is in a strong position to qualify for the 2025 WTC final, but there are several scenarios to consider. Winning four or five matches against Australia will almost certainly ensure their qualification. However, India also has pathways to the final with 3-0, 3-1, or even 3-2 victories, although these depend on the results of other teams, especially South Africa and Sri Lanka.
India’s qualification for the final is within their control, but it will require strong performances in the remaining Tests and a bit of luck with results in other series. With everything at stake, Team India will need to focus on delivering consistent performances in the upcoming matches to secure a place at Lord’s in June 2025.
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